NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
64%42%
Color · 18 mapsedge Color +22%UPGRADE · 8 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
55%64%
Color · 7 mapsedge UPGRADE +9%UPGRADE · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%63%
Color · 9 mapsnearly even -1%UPGRADE · 4 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
73%50%
Color · 11 mapsedge Color +23%UPGRADE · 2 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
36%38%
Color · 7 mapsnearly even -2%UPGRADE · 4 maps
InfernoColor ban
55%57%
Color · 7 mapsnearly even -2%UPGRADE · 3 maps
NukeColor ban
50%44%
Color · 0 mapsedge Color +6%UPGRADE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
6. BanColor remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (62% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
Color 37%UPGRADE 63%
The model gave 63% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Color.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Color 76%UPGRADE 24%
The model gave 76% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteColor · 68%
Series resultColor 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2