WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubisflacons ban
50%40%
Comanche · 0 mapsedge Comanche +10%flacons · 1 map
DefaultComanche ban
40%50%
Comanche · 1 mapedge flacons +10%flacons · 0 maps
Dust2Comanche pick
50%40%
Comanche · 0 mapsedge Comanche +10%flacons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanComanche remove Default
2. Banflacons remove Anubis
3. PickComanche take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Comanche 47%flacons 53%
The model gave 53% on flacons — the map was taken by flacons.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Comanche 63%flacons 37%
The model gave 63% on Comanche — the map was taken by flacons.
Model check result
Model favoriteComanche · 50%
Series resultflacons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2