European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
64%63%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Atreides · 4 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
50%33%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +17%Atreides · 2 maps
MirageAtreides pick
43%82%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 3 mapsedge Atreides +39%Atreides · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
75%67%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 4 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +8%Atreides · 5 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
40%67%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 mapsedge Atreides +27%Atreides · 2 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 6 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
57%50%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 3 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +7%Atreides · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Overpass
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Inferno
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Dust2
6. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (75% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 69%Atreides 31%
The model gave 69% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 13%Atreides 87%
The model gave 87% on Atreides — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE Prospects · 54%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE Prospects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2