WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 6 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%Dark Moon · 0 maps
MirageDark Moon pick
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Dark Moon · 0 maps
AncientDark Moon ban
56%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 5 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
29%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge Dark Moon +21%Dark Moon · 0 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
60%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +10%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
4. PickDark Moon take Mirage
5. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
CYBERSHOKE 53%Dark Moon 47%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
CYBERSHOKE 63%Dark Moon 37%
The model gave 63% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 75%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2