BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
43%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge megoshort +7%megoshort · 2 maps
Ancientmegoshort ban
43%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge megoshort +7%megoshort · 0 maps
Dust2megoshort ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%megoshort · 1 map
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
50%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 1 map
DefaultCYBERSHOKE pick
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%megoshort · 1 map
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Default
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Dust2
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
CYBERSHOKE 40%megoshort 60%
The model gave 60% on megoshort — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
CYBERSHOKE 63%megoshort 37%
The model gave 63% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 67%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2