WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +13%UPGRADE · 6 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
47%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 13 mapsnearly even -3%UPGRADE · 2 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE ban
55%38%
CYBERSHOKE · 7 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%UPGRADE · 4 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
43%64%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +21%UPGRADE · 7 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
67%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +27%UPGRADE · 1 map
CacheUPGRADE ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%UPGRADE · 2 maps
DefaultUPGRADE pick
67%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +7%UPGRADE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
2. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickUPGRADE take Default
5. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
CYBERSHOKE 47%UPGRADE 53%
The model gave 53% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
CYBERSHOKE 66%UPGRADE 34%
The model gave 66% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
CYBERSHOKE 47%UPGRADE 53%
The model gave 53% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 52%
Series resultUPGRADE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3