1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
DEPO#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Game Point#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGame Point pick
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Game Point · 0 maps
Dust2DEPO ban
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Game Point · 0 maps
MirageGame Point ban
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Game Point · 0 maps
OverpassDEPO pick
60%50%
DEPO · 1 mapedge DEPO +10%Game Point · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDEPO remove Dust2
2. BanGame Point remove Mirage
3. PickDEPO take Overpass
4. PickGame Point take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
DEPO 57%Game Point 43%
The model gave 57% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
DEPO 53%Game Point 47%
The model gave 53% on DEPO — the map was taken by DEPO.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 69%
Series resultDEPO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2