ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EMPIRE#176 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDesi Boyz ban
40%40%
Desi Boyz · 1 mapnearly even +0%EMPIRE · 6 maps
NukeDesi Boyz pick
33%56%
Desi Boyz · 2 mapsedge EMPIRE +23%EMPIRE · 5 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
40%43%
Desi Boyz · 1 mapnearly even -3%EMPIRE · 3 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
60%57%
Desi Boyz · 1 mapnearly even +3%EMPIRE · 3 maps
CacheDesi Boyz ban
40%33%
Desi Boyz · 1 mapedge Desi Boyz +7%EMPIRE · 2 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
60%50%
Desi Boyz · 1 mapedge Desi Boyz +10%EMPIRE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDesi Boyz remove Inferno
2. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
3. PickDesi Boyz take Nuke
4. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
5. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
6. BanDesi Boyz remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Desi Boyz 50%EMPIRE 50%
The model gave 50% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Desi Boyz 63%EMPIRE 37%
The model gave 63% on Desi Boyz — the map was taken by Desi Boyz.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Desi Boyz 29%EMPIRE 71%
The model gave 71% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDesi Boyz · 54%
Series resultEMPIRE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3