NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Festina Lente#193 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%60%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +20%Festina Lente · 1 map
NukeDETONATE pick
60%60%
DETONATE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Festina Lente · 1 map
MirageFestina Lente ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%Festina Lente · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanFestina Lente remove Mirage
3. PickDETONATE take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
DETONATE 47%Festina Lente 53%
The model gave 53% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
DETONATE 53%Festina Lente 47%
The model gave 53% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 50%
Series resultFestina Lente 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2