NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#169 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KODEX#242 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoKODEX ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 16 mapsedge KODEX +10%KODEX · 0 maps
NukeKODEX ban
54%29%
DETONATE · 9 mapsedge DETONATE +25%KODEX · 3 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
50%38%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge DETONATE +12%KODEX · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%40%
DETONATE · 9 mapsnearly even -2%KODEX · 1 map
CacheKODEX pick
54%50%
DETONATE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%KODEX · 0 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
42%50%
DETONATE · 8 mapsedge KODEX +8%KODEX · 0 maps
DefaultDETONATE pick
50%67%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge KODEX +17%KODEX · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanKODEX remove Inferno
3. PickDETONATE take Default
4. PickKODEX take Cache
5. BanKODEX remove Nuke
6. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (38% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
DETONATE 39%KODEX 61%
The model gave 61% on KODEX — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
DETONATE 77%KODEX 23%
The model gave 77% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 57%
Series resultDETONATE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2