ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDETONATE pick
42%46%
DETONATE · 8 mapsnearly even -4%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
33%69%
DETONATE · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +36%Overtake Sector · 12 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%42%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +8%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%71%
DETONATE · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +21%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
29%57%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +28%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickDETONATE take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
DETONATE 31%Overtake Sector 69%
The model gave 69% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
DETONATE 17%Overtake Sector 83%
The model gave 83% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
DETONATE 45%Overtake Sector 55%
The model gave 55% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 66%
Series resultOvertake Sector 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3