AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DH Premium ban
50%60%
DH Premium · 0 mapsedge mXm +10%mXm · 1 map
InfernomXm ban
50%40%
DH Premium · 0 mapsedge DH Premium +10%mXm · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
DH Premium · 0 mapsedge mXm +10%mXm · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDH Premium remove Dust2
2. BanmXm remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
DH Premium 60%mXm 40%
The model gave 60% on DH Premium — the map was taken by DH Premium.
Model check result
Model favoritemXm · 50%
Series resultDH Premium 13:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1