AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernomXm ban
60%33%
DH Premium · 1 mapedge DH Premium +27%mXm · 2 maps
MiragemXm pick
40%67%
DH Premium · 1 mapedge mXm +27%mXm · 2 maps
AncientDH Premium ban
40%60%
DH Premium · 1 mapedge mXm +20%mXm · 1 map
Dust2DH Premium pick
50%60%
DH Premium · 0 mapsedge mXm +10%mXm · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDH Premium remove Ancient
2. BanmXm remove Inferno
3. PickDH Premium take Dust2
4. PickmXm take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
DH Premium 77%mXm 23%
The model gave 77% on DH Premium — the map was taken by DH Premium.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
DH Premium 37%mXm 63%
The model gave 63% on mXm — the map was taken by DH Premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteDH Premium · 59%
Series resultDH Premium 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2