Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Dhalaloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Prestige#100 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDhala ban
40%43%
Dhala · 1 mapnearly even -3%Prestige · 3 maps
AncientPrestige pick
50%57%
Dhala · 0 mapsedge Prestige +7%Prestige · 3 maps
AnubisDhala pick
50%50%
Dhala · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Prestige · 2 maps
Dust2Prestige ban
33%50%
Dhala · 2 mapsedge Prestige +17%Prestige · 0 maps
MiragePrestige ban
50%33%
Dhala · 0 mapsedge Dhala +17%Prestige · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Dhala · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Prestige · 0 maps
CacheDhala ban
40%50%
Dhala · 1 mapedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDhala remove Cache
2. BanPrestige remove Dust2
3. PickDhala take Anubis
4. PickPrestige take Ancient
5. BanPrestige remove Mirage
6. BanDhala remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Dhala 36%Prestige 64%
The model gave 64% on Prestige — the map was taken by Prestige.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
Dhala 64%Prestige 36%
The model gave 64% on Dhala — the map was taken by Prestige.
Model check result
Model favoritePrestige · 56%
Series resultPrestige 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2