Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Diamant#210 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
aimclub#98 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
60%25%
Diamant · 1 mapedge Diamant +35%aimclub · 4 maps
Mirageaimclub pick
33%57%
Diamant · 2 mapsedge aimclub +24%aimclub · 3 maps
AnubisDiamant ban
33%67%
Diamant · 2 mapsedge aimclub +34%aimclub · 2 maps
Dust2Diamant ban
50%43%
Diamant · 0 mapsedge Diamant +7%aimclub · 3 maps
CacheDiamant pick
50%50%
Diamant · 0 mapsnearly even +0%aimclub · 2 maps
Infernoaimclub ban
50%60%
Diamant · 0 mapsedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDiamant remove Dust2
2. Banaimclub remove Ancient
3. PickDiamant take Cache
4. Pickaimclub take Mirage
5. Banaimclub remove Inferno
6. BanDiamant remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct15:19
Diamant 22%aimclub 78%
The model gave 78% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Diamant 54%aimclub 46%
The model gave 54% on Diamant — the map was taken by Diamant.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Diamant 40%aimclub 60%
The model gave 60% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 53%
Series resultaimclub 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3