DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DXA#220 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDing Cuts pick
43%50%
Ding Cuts · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 0 maps
InfernoDXA ban
50%50%
Ding Cuts · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DXA · 0 maps
NukeDing Cuts ban
40%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge DXA +10%DXA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDing Cuts remove Nuke
2. BanDXA remove Inferno
3. PickDing Cuts take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Ding Cuts 53%DXA 47%
The model gave 53% on Ding Cuts — the map was taken by Ding Cuts.
Overpassprediction missed13:8
Ding Cuts 47%DXA 53%
The model gave 53% on DXA — the map was taken by Ding Cuts.
Model check result
Model favoriteDing Cuts · 52%
Series resultDing Cuts 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2