PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs predictionDDIVINITYloss 4:13
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 4:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DIVINITY ban
50%54%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even -4%ex-RUSTEC · 44 maps
NukeDIVINITY ban
50%51%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 31 map
AnubisDIVINITY ban
50%64%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%ex-RUSTEC · 24 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
50%48%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even +2%ex-RUSTEC · 21 map
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
50%50%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 16 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
50%47%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even +3%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
DIVINITY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDIVINITY remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
3. BanDIVINITY remove Dust2
4. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
5. BanDIVINITY remove Nuke
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
DIVINITY 36%ex-RUSTEC 64%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 75%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 4:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1