ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
44%60%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +16%Fire Flux · 1 map
Dust2Fire Flux pick
33%40%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Fire Flux · 1 map
AncientFire Flux ban
57%40%
DONSTU · 3 mapsedge DONSTU +17%Fire Flux · 1 map
InfernoDONSTU ban
38%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +12%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
DONSTU 40%Fire Flux 60%
The model gave 60% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
DONSTU 69%Fire Flux 31%
The model gave 69% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
DONSTU 35%Fire Flux 65%
The model gave 65% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 51%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3