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CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#203 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quintessence#162 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheQuintessence pick
36%55%
DONSTU · 7 mapsedge Quintessence +19%Quintessence · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%67%
DONSTU · 6 mapsedge Quintessence +17%Quintessence · 5 maps
AnubisQuintessence ban
46%50%
DONSTU · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Quintessence · 0 maps
NukeQuintessence ban
30%40%
DONSTU · 6 mapsedge Quintessence +10%Quintessence · 1 map
AncientDONSTU pick
63%40%
DONSTU · 4 mapsedge DONSTU +23%Quintessence · 1 map
MirageDONSTU ban
40%63%
DONSTU · 1 mapedge Quintessence +23%Quintessence · 4 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
60%71%
DONSTU · 1 mapedge Quintessence +11%Quintessence · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
2. BanQuintessence remove Anubis
3. PickDONSTU take Ancient
4. PickQuintessence take Cache
5. BanQuintessence remove Nuke
6. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
DONSTU 36%Quintessence 64%
The model gave 64% on Quintessence — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
DONSTU 30%Quintessence 70%
The model gave 70% on Quintessence — the map was taken by Quintessence.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
DONSTU 39%Quintessence 61%
The model gave 61% on Quintessence — the map was taken by Quintessence.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 59%
Series resultQuintessence 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3