Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
52%60%
DONSTU · 19 mapsedge train launcher +8%train launcher · 6 maps
Dust2train launcher ban
36%50%
DONSTU · 18 mapsedge train launcher +14%train launcher · 0 maps
Ancienttrain launcher ban
47%29%
DONSTU · 11 mapsedge DONSTU +18%train launcher · 3 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
43%57%
DONSTU · 10 mapsedge train launcher +14%train launcher · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
46%40%
DONSTU · 9 mapsedge DONSTU +6%train launcher · 1 map
Nuketrain launcher pick
33%60%
DONSTU · 5 mapsedge train launcher +27%train launcher · 1 map
MirageDONSTU ban
50%38%
DONSTU · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +12%train launcher · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
2. Bantrain launcher remove Ancient
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. Picktrain launcher take Nuke
5. Bantrain launcher remove Dust2
6. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
DeciderCache (46% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
DONSTU 50%train launcher 50%
The model gave 50% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 52%
Series resultDONSTU 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1