NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
33%57%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +24%ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 maps
NukeDragonClaw ban
50%56%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 maps
MirageDragonClaw pick
67%45%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +22%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%40%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%44%
DragonClaw · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +23%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
DefaultDragonClaw ban
20%60%
DragonClaw · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +40%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%36%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +14%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDragonClaw remove Default
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
3. PickDragonClaw take Mirage
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanDragonClaw remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
DragonClaw 14%ex-Zero Tenacity 86%
The model gave 86% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragonClaw · 64%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1