European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Drama#135 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSaint Sinners ban
60%43%
Drama · 6 mapsedge Drama +17%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
MirageSaint Sinners ban
56%29%
Drama · 5 mapsedge Drama +27%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
NukeDrama pick
75%50%
Drama · 4 mapsedge Drama +25%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
29%57%
Drama · 3 mapsedge Saint Sinners +28%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
InfernoDrama ban
33%40%
Drama · 5 mapsedge Saint Sinners +7%Saint Sinners · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
67%43%
Drama · 2 mapsedge Drama +24%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
AnubisDrama ban
33%60%
Drama · 2 mapsedge Saint Sinners +27%Saint Sinners · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Anubis
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
3. PickDrama take Nuke
4. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Mirage
6. BanDrama remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Drama 73%Saint Sinners 27%
The model gave 73% on Drama — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 56%
Series resultSaint Sinners 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1