NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionDDrama#143 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SINQU#180 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientDrama pick
67%40%
Drama · 2 mapsedge Drama +27%SINQU · 1 map
CacheDrama ban
50%43%
Drama · 0 mapsedge Drama +7%SINQU · 3 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
33%40%
Drama · 2 mapsedge SINQU +7%SINQU · 1 map
MirageSINQU ban
57%50%
Drama · 3 mapsedge Drama +7%SINQU · 0 maps
NukeSINQU pick
50%57%
Drama · 0 mapsedge SINQU +7%SINQU · 3 maps
AnubisDrama ban
40%40%
Drama · 1 mapnearly even +0%SINQU · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Drama · 0 mapsedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDrama remove Cache
2. BanSINQU remove Mirage
3. PickDrama take Ancient
4. PickSINQU take Nuke
5. BanSINQU remove Dust2
6. BanDrama remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Drama 54%SINQU 46%
The model gave 54% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Infernoprediction missed16:19
Drama 53%SINQU 47%
The model gave 53% on Drama — the map was taken by SINQU.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Drama 75%SINQU 25%
The model gave 75% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 55%
Series resultDrama 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3