XP Game Fest 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassEAC pick
57%56%
EAC · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Atreides · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%57%
EAC · 2 mapsedge Atreides +24%Atreides · 3 maps
MirageAtreides pick
40%75%
EAC · 1 mapedge Atreides +35%Atreides · 4 maps
NukeAtreides ban
50%50%
EAC · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 0 maps
InfernoAtreides ban
50%57%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Atreides +7%Atreides · 3 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%33%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +17%Atreides · 2 maps
DefaultEAC ban
50%60%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Atreides +10%Atreides · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanAtreides remove Inferno
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Nuke
6. BanEAC remove Default
DeciderAncient (33% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:6
EAC 55%Atreides 45%
The model gave 55% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
EAC 16%Atreides 84%
The model gave 84% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
EAC 27%Atreides 73%
The model gave 73% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 63%
Series resultAtreides 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3