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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEAC ban
45%56%
EAC · 16 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
41%53%
EAC · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
MirageEAC pick
61%57%
EAC · 14 mapsnearly even +4%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%60%
EAC · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
62%67%
EAC · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +5%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%53%
EAC · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
20%33%
EAC · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanEAC remove Ancient
DeciderCache (62% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
EAC 36%BASEMENT BOYS 64%
The model gave 64% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
EAC 57%BASEMENT BOYS 43%
The model gave 57% on EAC — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction missed19:16
EAC 39%BASEMENT BOYS 61%
The model gave 61% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 60%
Series resultEAC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3