Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeEAC ban
38%41%
EAC · 12 mapsnearly even -3%Betclic · 13 maps
MirageEAC pick
55%45%
EAC · 7 mapsedge EAC +10%Betclic · 7 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
50%30%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +20%Betclic · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
45%38%
EAC · 7 mapsedge EAC +7%Betclic · 4 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
40%71%
EAC · 1 mapedge Betclic +31%Betclic · 10 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
29%29%
EAC · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 3 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%33%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +17%Betclic · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanBetclic remove Overpass
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Inferno
6. BanEAC remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (45% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
EAC 61%Betclic 39%
The model gave 61% on EAC — the map was taken by Betclic.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
EAC 64%Betclic 36%
The model gave 64% on EAC — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 59%
Series resultBetclic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2