Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHashiras pick
43%44%
EAC · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Hashiras · 5 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%63%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Hashiras +13%Hashiras · 4 maps
AncientHashiras ban
33%40%
EAC · 2 mapsedge Hashiras +7%Hashiras · 1 map
AnubisEAC ban
50%57%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Hashiras +7%Hashiras · 3 maps
InfernoHashiras ban
50%33%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +17%Hashiras · 2 maps
OverpassEAC pick
50%50%
EAC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Hashiras · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Hashiras +10%Hashiras · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanHashiras remove Ancient
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. PickHashiras take Nuke
5. BanHashiras remove Inferno
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
EAC 45%Hashiras 55%
The model gave 55% on Hashiras — the map was taken by EAC.
Overpassprediction correct16:12
EAC 53%Hashiras 47%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 70%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2