Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
44%60%
EAC · 12 mapsedge HOTU +16%HOTU · 11 maps
NukeHOTU pick
38%75%
EAC · 12 mapsedge HOTU +37%HOTU · 8 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%62%
EAC · 1 mapedge HOTU +22%HOTU · 17 maps
MirageHOTU ban
46%50%
EAC · 9 mapsnearly even -4%HOTU · 6 maps
CacheEAC pick
67%58%
EAC · 5 mapsedge EAC +9%HOTU · 8 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
50%29%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +21%HOTU · 3 maps
AnubisEAC ban
57%75%
EAC · 3 mapsedge HOTU +18%HOTU · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanHOTU remove Overpass
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickHOTU take Nuke
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
EAC 37%HOTU 63%
The model gave 63% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
EAC 28%HOTU 72%
The model gave 72% on HOTU — the map was taken by EAC.
Cacheprediction correct19:17
EAC 59%HOTU 41%
The model gave 59% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 64%
Series resultEAC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3