European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKOLESIE pick
36%67%
EAC · 10 mapsedge KOLESIE +31%KOLESIE · 11 maps
OverpassEAC pick
50%57%
EAC · 8 mapsedge KOLESIE +7%KOLESIE · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
EAC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 8 maps
MirageEAC ban
56%62%
EAC · 5 mapsedge KOLESIE +6%KOLESIE · 9 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%31%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +19%KOLESIE · 9 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
50%50%
EAC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 8 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
29%50%
EAC · 3 mapsedge KOLESIE +21%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanEAC remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
EAC 47%KOLESIE 53%
The model gave 53% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
EAC 20%KOLESIE 80%
The model gave 80% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 71%
Series resultKOLESIE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2