ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEAC pick
59%43%
EAC · 13 mapsedge EAC +16%Lavked · 24 maps
AncientLavked pick
42%58%
EAC · 15 mapsedge Lavked +16%Lavked · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
41%38%
EAC · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 9 maps
AnubisEAC ban
50%60%
EAC · 8 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 11 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%44%
EAC · 1 mapnearly even -4%Lavked · 14 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%43%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +7%Lavked · 3 maps
CacheLavked ban
62%40%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +22%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanLavked remove Cache
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickLavked take Ancient
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (41% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
EAC 32%Lavked 68%
The model gave 68% on Lavked — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
EAC 68%Lavked 32%
The model gave 68% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 71%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2