Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
39%45%
EAC · 14 mapsedge SAW +6%SAW · 7 maps
NukeEAC ban
41%50%
EAC · 13 mapsedge SAW +9%SAW · 2 maps
InfernoSAW pick
22%69%
EAC · 5 mapsedge SAW +47%SAW · 9 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%50%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even +0%SAW · 4 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%46%
EAC · 1 mapedge SAW +6%SAW · 9 maps
AnubisSAW ban
63%33%
EAC · 4 mapsedge EAC +30%SAW · 5 maps
CacheEAC pick
58%60%
EAC · 8 mapsnearly even -2%SAW · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanSAW remove Anubis
3. PickEAC take Cache
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (39% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
EAC 10%SAW 90%
The model gave 90% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
EAC 79%SAW 21%
The model gave 79% on EAC — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 71%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2