Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
38%63%
EAC · 12 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Walczaki · 26 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
50%65%
EAC · 6 mapsedge Walczaki +15%Walczaki · 16 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%45%
EAC · 0 mapsedge EAC +5%Walczaki · 16 maps
MirageEAC pick
55%77%
EAC · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +22%Walczaki · 9 maps
AnubisEAC ban
50%67%
EAC · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
29%60%
EAC · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +31%Walczaki · 11 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
50%33%
EAC · 8 mapsedge EAC +17%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickEAC take Mirage
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (29% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
EAC 31%Walczaki 69%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
EAC 38%Walczaki 62%
The model gave 62% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 77%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2