Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientK27 pick
57%64%
Echo · 3 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 7 maps
OverpassEcho pick
43%56%
Echo · 3 mapsedge K27 +13%K27 · 5 maps
MirageEcho ban
40%50%
Echo · 1 mapedge K27 +10%K27 · 6 maps
NukeK27 ban
60%30%
Echo · 1 mapedge Echo +30%K27 · 6 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%63%
Echo · 0 mapsedge K27 +13%K27 · 4 maps
AnubisK27 ban
50%43%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Echo +7%K27 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanK27 remove Nuke
3. PickEcho take Overpass
4. PickK27 take Ancient
5. BanK27 remove Anubis
6. BanEcho remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Echo 40%K27 60%
The model gave 60% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Echo 37%K27 63%
The model gave 63% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 55%
Series resultK27 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2