Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKOLESIE pick
50%63%
Echo · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +13%KOLESIE · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
Echo · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%KOLESIE · 10 maps
Dust2KOLESIE ban
50%27%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Echo +23%KOLESIE · 11 maps
MirageEcho ban
50%67%
Echo · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 11 maps
OverpassEcho pick
40%57%
Echo · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 10 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
50%50%
Echo · 0 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 8 maps
DefaultEcho ban
50%60%
Echo · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%KOLESIE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Mirage
2. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
3. PickEcho take Overpass
4. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanEcho remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Echo 37%KOLESIE 63%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Echo.
Overpassprediction correct13:16
Echo 36%KOLESIE 64%
The model gave 64% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
Echo 37%KOLESIE 63%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 52%
Series resultEcho 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3