Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeEcho pick
67%63%
Echo · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Walczaki · 26 maps
AncientEcho ban
63%67%
Echo · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Walczaki · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%68%
Echo · 1 mapedge Walczaki +8%Walczaki · 15 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%45%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Echo +5%Walczaki · 16 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
50%60%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 11 maps
MirageWalczaki pick
33%77%
Echo · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +44%Walczaki · 9 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
44%33%
Echo · 5 mapsedge Echo +11%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickEcho take Nuke
4. PickWalczaki take Mirage
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanEcho remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Echo 38%Walczaki 62%
The model gave 62% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Echo 57%Walczaki 43%
The model gave 57% on Echo — the map was taken by Echo.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Echo 13%Walczaki 87%
The model gave 87% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 61%
Series resultEcho 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3