NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#182 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG pick
40%57%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 17 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
64%63%
EMPIRE · 7 mapsnearly even +1%LAG · 15 maps
MirageLAG ban
33%44%
EMPIRE · 5 mapsedge LAG +11%LAG · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%67%
EMPIRE · 7 mapsnearly even -3%LAG · 11 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
50%75%
EMPIRE · 6 mapsedge LAG +25%LAG · 8 maps
AnubisEMPIRE ban
50%71%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge LAG +21%LAG · 10 maps
CacheLAG ban
33%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Anubis
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickLAG take Inferno
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (64% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
EMPIRE 50%LAG 50%
The model gave 50% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
EMPIRE 31%LAG 69%
The model gave 69% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 73%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2