Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 19:16series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 19:16
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 16:19The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
52%60%
ENCE · 19 mapsedge Aimhaus +8%Aimhaus · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
63%67%
ENCE · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Aimhaus · 2 maps
NukeAimhaus ban
50%50%
ENCE · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Aimhaus · 0 maps
AnubisAimhaus ban
54%33%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge ENCE +21%Aimhaus · 2 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
46%67%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge Aimhaus +21%Aimhaus · 2 maps
CacheAimhaus ban
50%50%
ENCE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Aimhaus · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%60%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge Aimhaus +38%Aimhaus · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanAimhaus remove Cache
3. BanENCE remove Dust2
4. BanAimhaus remove Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Mirage
6. BanAimhaus remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed19:16
ENCE 42%Aimhaus 58%
The model gave 58% on Aimhaus — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 73%
Series resultENCE 19:16
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1