Elisa Open Finland Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE pick
71%60%
ENCE · 3 mapsedge ENCE +11%boyband · 1 map
Ancientboyband ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%boyband · 0 maps
InfernoENCE ban
33%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge boyband +17%boyband · 0 maps
Overpassboyband pick
40%60%
ENCE · 1 mapedge boyband +20%boyband · 1 map
Anubisboyband ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%boyband · 0 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%boyband · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%boyband · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Inferno
2. Banboyband remove Anubis
3. PickENCE take Mirage
4. Pickboyband take Overpass
5. Banboyband remove Ancient
6. BanENCE remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:9
ENCE 28%boyband 72%
The model gave 72% on boyband — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
ENCE 65%boyband 35%
The model gave 65% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 60%
Series resultENCE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2