Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 13:10series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 13:10
Sangal#48 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSangal ban
52%44%
ENCE · 19 mapsedge ENCE +8%Sangal · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%67%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 5 maps
CacheENCE ban
50%60%
ENCE · 8 mapsedge Sangal +10%Sangal · 6 maps
AnubisSangal ban
54%57%
ENCE · 9 mapsnearly even -3%Sangal · 3 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
42%38%
ENCE · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Sangal · 4 maps
InfernoSangal ban
60%50%
ENCE · 11 mapsedge ENCE +10%Sangal · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%43%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge Sangal +21%Sangal · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. BanENCE remove Dust2
4. BanSangal remove Mirage
5. BanENCE remove Cache
6. BanSangal remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
ENCE 54%Sangal 46%
The model gave 54% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 70%
Series resultENCE 13:10
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1