Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Endless Journey pick
71%58%
Endless Journey · 10 mapsedge Endless Journey +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
50%58%
Endless Journey · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
56%55%
Endless Journey · 12 mapsnearly even +1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
InfernoEndless Journey ban
40%50%
Endless Journey · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
38%38%
Endless Journey · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%71%
Endless Journey · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +21%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%40%
Endless Journey · 0 mapsedge Endless Journey +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
3. PickEndless Journey take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
6. BanEndless Journey remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Endless Journey 29%ex-Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteEndless Journey · 55%
Series resultEndless Journey 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1