ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoENRAGE pick
40%40%
ENRAGE · 1 mapnearly even +0%ROUNDS · 1 map
MirageROUNDS ban
50%50%
ENRAGE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ROUNDS · 2 maps
AncientROUNDS pick
50%40%
ENRAGE · 0 mapsedge ENRAGE +10%ROUNDS · 1 map
Dust2ROUNDS ban
40%50%
ENRAGE · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
NukeENRAGE ban
50%60%
ENRAGE · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENRAGE remove Nuke
2. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
3. PickENRAGE take Inferno
4. PickROUNDS take Ancient
5. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
ENRAGE 63%ROUNDS 37%
The model gave 63% on ENRAGE — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
ENRAGE 47%ROUNDS 53%
The model gave 53% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 62%
Series resultROUNDS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2