ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
33%80%
Entropy · 11 mapsedge Atreides +47%Atreides · 16 maps
AncientEntropy pick
50%50%
Entropy · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 10 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
38%57%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge Atreides +19%Atreides · 10 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
38%43%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge Atreides +5%Atreides · 10 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
44%36%
Entropy · 5 mapsedge Entropy +8%Atreides · 7 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
50%40%
Entropy · 10 mapsedge Entropy +10%Atreides · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%55%
Entropy · 1 mapedge Entropy +5%Atreides · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickEntropy take Ancient
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Overpass
6. BanEntropy remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Entropy 53%Atreides 47%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Entropy 10%Atreides 90%
The model gave 90% on Atreides — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 53%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2