NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#132 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ENCE#130 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
58%53%
Entropy · 32 mapsedge Entropy +5%ENCE · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%55%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge ENCE +5%ENCE · 7 maps
AncientENCE ban
55%22%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge Entropy +33%ENCE · 5 maps
AnubisEntropy ban
47%60%
Entropy · 11 mapsedge ENCE +13%ENCE · 6 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
25%50%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge ENCE +25%ENCE · 0 maps
InfernoENCE pick
50%70%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge ENCE +20%ENCE · 6 maps
NukeEntropy ban
50%46%
Entropy · 4 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickEntropy take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Dust2
6. BanEntropy remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Entropy 50%ENCE 50%
The model gave 50% on Entropy — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 50%
Series resultENCE 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1