ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageeSuba ban
55%60%
Entropy · 34 mapsedge eSuba +5%eSuba · 1 map
AncientEntropy ban
53%50%
Entropy · 15 mapsnearly even +3%eSuba · 4 maps
AnubiseSuba ban
41%30%
Entropy · 13 mapsedge Entropy +11%eSuba · 6 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
26%25%
Entropy · 15 mapsnearly even +1%eSuba · 4 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%50%
Entropy · 16 mapsnearly even +0%eSuba · 0 maps
InfernoeSuba pick
50%63%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge eSuba +13%eSuba · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
47%50%
Entropy · 11 mapsnearly even -3%eSuba · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BaneSuba remove Mirage
3. PickEntropy take Cache
4. PickeSuba take Inferno
5. BaneSuba remove Anubis
6. BanEntropy remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Entropy 49%eSuba 51%
The model gave 51% on eSuba — the map was taken by Entropy.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Entropy 56%eSuba 44%
The model gave 56% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 65%
Series resultEntropy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2