Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Envy#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%43%
Envy · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 19 maps
MirageEnvy ban
50%68%
Envy · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +18%BASEMENT BOYS · 18 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%56%
Envy · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%44%
Envy · 1 mapnearly even -4%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
Dust2Envy ban
50%59%
Envy · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +9%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%56%
Envy · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
DefaultEnvy pick
50%50%
Envy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEnvy remove Mirage
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
3. PickEnvy take Default
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
6. BanEnvy remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (33% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Envy 37%BASEMENT BOYS 63%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Envy 49%BASEMENT BOYS 51%
The model gave 51% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnvy · 79%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2