Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BIG#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBIG pick
58%58%
Eternal Fire · 22 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 15 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
69%38%
Eternal Fire · 22 mapsedge Eternal Fire +31%BIG · 9 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
41%50%
Eternal Fire · 18 mapsedge BIG +9%BIG · 12 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%57%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsedge BIG +7%BIG · 10 maps
Dust2BIG ban
71%50%
Eternal Fire · 17 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%BIG · 4 maps
AnubisBIG ban
53%50%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BIG · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%BIG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanBIG remove Dust2
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickBIG take Cache
5. BanBIG remove Anubis
6. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Eternal Fire 80%BIG 20%
The model gave 80% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Eternal Fire 40%BIG 60%
The model gave 60% on BIG — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 57%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2