ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilmix#191 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lilmix ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Lilmix · 1 map
MirageEternal Fire ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Lilmix · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Eternal Fire 57%Lilmix 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
Eternal Fire 63%Lilmix 37%
The model gave 63% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Eternal Fire 50%Lilmix 50%
The model gave 50% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 73%
Series resultLilmix 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3