BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Oramond#119 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
56%57%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Oramond · 3 maps
AncientOramond ban
67%50%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Oramond · 0 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
43%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Oramond +7%Oramond · 2 maps
AnubisOramond ban
60%50%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%Oramond · 2 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%33%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Oramond · 2 maps
DefaultOramond pick
60%50%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%Oramond · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
2. BanOramond remove Ancient
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickOramond take Default
5. BanOramond remove Anubis
6. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Eternal Fire 57%Oramond 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Oramond.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Eternal Fire 51%Oramond 49%
The model gave 51% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Eternal Fire 43%Oramond 57%
The model gave 57% on Oramond — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 78%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3