Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%45%
eternal premium · 8 mapsedge eternal premium +5%Privateer · 7 maps
Mirageeternal premium pick
46%43%
eternal premium · 9 mapsnearly even +3%Privateer · 3 maps
AncientPrivateer ban
60%50%
eternal premium · 6 mapsedge eternal premium +10%Privateer · 4 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
33%33%
eternal premium · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Privateer · 5 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
40%50%
eternal premium · 6 mapsedge Privateer +10%Privateer · 0 maps
Infernoeternal premium ban
50%67%
eternal premium · 4 mapsedge Privateer +17%Privateer · 2 maps
DefaultPrivateer pick
33%50%
eternal premium · 2 mapsedge Privateer +17%Privateer · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
2. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
3. Picketernal premium take Mirage
4. PickPrivateer take Default
5. BanPrivateer remove Ancient
6. Baneternal premium remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
eternal premium 33%Privateer 67%
The model gave 67% on Privateer — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
eternal premium 63%Privateer 37%
The model gave 63% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 53%
Series resulteternal premium 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2