European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sashi Academy#169 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSashi Academy ban
45%25%
eternal premium · 7 mapsedge eternal premium +20%Sashi Academy · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%50%
eternal premium · 5 mapsedge eternal premium +6%Sashi Academy · 4 maps
InfernoSashi Academy pick
67%56%
eternal premium · 2 mapsedge eternal premium +11%Sashi Academy · 5 maps
Mirageeternal premium ban
38%57%
eternal premium · 4 mapsedge Sashi Academy +19%Sashi Academy · 3 maps
AnubisSashi Academy ban
29%40%
eternal premium · 3 mapsedge Sashi Academy +11%Sashi Academy · 1 map
Overpasseternal premium pick
60%40%
eternal premium · 1 mapedge eternal premium +20%Sashi Academy · 1 map
Dust2eternal premium ban
40%50%
eternal premium · 1 mapedge Sashi Academy +10%Sashi Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
2. BanSashi Academy remove Nuke
3. Picketernal premium take Overpass
4. PickSashi Academy take Inferno
5. BanSashi Academy remove Anubis
6. Baneternal premium remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
eternal premium 59%Sashi Academy 41%
The model gave 59% on eternal premium — the map was taken by Sashi Academy.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
eternal premium 74%Sashi Academy 26%
The model gave 74% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
eternal premium 56%Sashi Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi Academy · 59%
Series resulteternal premium 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3